Using the number of lottery applications for the 2000 race as a guide, the probabilities turn out to be higher (i.e. better) thanexpected:
about 9% (if you applied as a member of the Passportclub)
about 3% (if you applied but not as a member of thePassport club)
Details (for those interested in the math):
There are 150 lottery slots available (for our purposes, this applies to US based applications).
100 are given to Passport club members at a first drawing. The other 50 slotsat a second drawing are drawn from a pool of non-Passport members and Passportmembers that weren't among the 100 selected in the first round.
So, if you're a Passport club member, you have a chance at being selectedduring the first drawing. The probability is P(A) = 100 / x, where "x"indicates the number of Passport club applicants. If you're not selected at thattime then you still have a chance in the second drawing. This probability is P(B)= 50 /((x-100) + y) , where "y" indicates the number ofnon-Passport club applicants. Mathematically, Passport club members have aprobability of being selected as P(AorB) = P(A) + P(B).
If you're not a Passport club member, your chances are equal to P(B).
Based on reported information from the WTC for year 2000, there were 1650 Passport clubapplicants, and 150 non-Passport club applicants. So, the probabilitiesof being selected are. . .
P(AorB)= 100/x + 50/((x-100)+y)
=100/1650 + 50/((1650-100)+150)
= .06 +.029 = .089
and P(B) = .029